– How do you assess France’s role? How do you see Emmanuel Macron’s support for Ukraine evolving?
-Alexander Temerko: Initially, Emmanuel Macron sought dialogue with Mr. Putin, but he quickly realized that the latter was unreliable. Macron quickly became one of the most committed Western leaders against Russian aggression, developing a strong and fraternal relationship with President Zelensky. He played a key role in supporting Ukraine politically, militarily, and economically, especially during critical moments when American support was uncertain.
I believe Mr. Macron will be the Western leader best placed to provide full support to Ukraine because I believe this is consistent with his vision of a united, strong, and free Europe. Mr. Macron knows that Ukraine’s full integration into a European defense structure will be a major step forward in his plan to create a united European armed forces, which I fully support.
-How do you view the Trump administration’s plan to end the conflict in Ukraine?
-Alexander TEMERKO: I just returned from the United States, where I established extensive contacts with the Trump administration to suggest realistic options for a peace plan for Ukraine. The Trump plan is structured in three stages: first, signing a massive trade agreement with Ukraine, estimated at a trillion dollars; second, establishing a lasting ceasefire, followed by new democratic elections in Ukraine; and finally, establishing a no-fly zone to stabilize the situation. This plan also involves potential compromises on Ukraine’s neutrality and territorial adjustments, under American pressure on both sides to achieve a lasting peace.
Yet today, there is internal discord between several factions (within the Trump administration): those who believe in supporting and rearming Ukraine, and those who believe that a deal with Russia is the best way to achieve peace – as I mentioned in a recent article in Le Figaro , the realists and the idealists.
Furthermore, I believe that any ceasefire is not secure as long as the US-China trade deal remains incomplete; China can use Russia as a proxy torpedo to pressure the West through Ukraine.
-Can Europe defend Ukraine militarily (and quickly) without US support?
-Alexander TEMERKO: Europe has a much more powerful economy than Russia and has the financial means to support Ukraine, including by purchasing weapons if necessary. If the United States were to disengage, France, Germany, Great Britain and Poland could, together, play a decisive role in the defense of Ukraine, even if this would represent a major logistical and political challenge. As such, Europe must look ahead and this critical situation must push it to consider a radical rearmament strategy, by establishing the equivalent of a “Ramstein Defense Group” to build a powerful industrial base, capable of establishing not a war economy per se but a complete, coherent, coordinated defense that is sufficiently formidable to deter any Russian ambition.
Such a group would focus on filling Europe’s strategic gap, namely the large-scale production of relatively cheap and reliable basic weaponry. In Europe, we have incredibly advanced military technology; yet we have found that the Russians and the Chinese are capable of outperforming us in some of the simplest basic elements of current warfare—certain types of shells, drones, munitions; but a multi-country military-industrial group could be the source of a European mass-production capability. I intend to engage with the French government and European partners on this idea.